Finance is showing significant results. Experts expect GDP growth in the first quarter6.
Posted On 03/19/2020
“Finance” is showing significant results. Experts expect GDP growth in the first quarter6.
Since this year, the economic operations of developing countries have been generally stable, and the economic growth rate has stabilized significantly, but the downward pressure has continued to decline.
Guo Xiaobei, an expert at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that investment continued to pick up in the first quarter of this year, and infrastructure investment and real estate were still the main supports. It is expected that GDP growth rate in the first quarter will reach 6.
3%, ten years GDP growth rate of about 6.
At the beginning of the new year, fiscal policies in developing countries continued to increase efficiency, local debt issuance was advanced, and fiscal expenditures accelerated.
In fact, infrastructure investment has been strengthened to make up for shortcomings, and major projects in various regions have been launched intensively, creating a good environment for stable investment.
Guo Xiaobei believes that, with the support of the gradual recovery of infrastructure investment and the rise of real estate investment, fixed asset investment has continued to stabilize and rebound, continuing the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year.
Zhang Haibing, deputy director of the Weber New Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that the lenient fiscal policy is showing significant results.
The growth rate of the completion of fixed asset investment has begun to pick up. From the first two months of this year alone, the National Development and Reform Commission’s national investment project online approval and supervision platform reported that infrastructure investment projects amounted to US $ 3.1562 billion, an increase of more than 30.
The sales of construction machinery exceeding expectations can also be significantly trimmed, and the pulling effect of infrastructure investment is showing.
”In the first quarter, the budgetary macroeconomic operation stabilized, and some potential risks were further alleviated. In particular, the equity margin collateral risks affecting private enterprises were effectively alleviated, and the upward trend of securities gradually eased the pressure on liquidation.
Zhang Haibing said that as the relief policy began to take effect, it is expected that the economic growth lows will be re-integrated in the first quarter, and the economic trend in the next three quarters may gradually bottom out.
Talking about monetary policy, Guo Xiaobei said that in the first quarter of this year, monetary policy strengthened the counter-cyclical interval, the initial full-scale reduction, the adjustment of the inclusive financial directional reduction assessment standards, and the creation of continuous liquidity to the medium-term lending facility (TMLF).Lay a good foundation for stable economic growth.
However, manufacturing investment in developing countries fell in the first quarter of this year.
According to Guo Xiaobei’s 杭州桑拿 analysis, from the structural point of view, in the past two months, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing has turned into a significant negative growth. The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing that originally continued to run at a rate of more than 10%Industry, all turned into negative growth rare in history.
In general, even with restrictive factors, the weakness of manufacturing investment has begun to appear.
Guo Xiaobei said that due to the drag of the manufacturing industry, private investment has also declined. In the first two months of this year, private investment has fallen below 8% for the first time since 2018, which indicates that there is a lack of endogenous incentives for investment.
In addition, Zhang Haibing believes that the consumption growth rate has stabilized, and it is still necessary to tilt the income distribution to trucks and residents to ensure that the consumption engine is not reduced.
At the same time, there are significant investment highlights in some industries in the first quarter of this year, including new infrastructure such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things that deserve attention.
(Article source: Securities Daily) (This article comes from Ping An Securities)