China Southern Airlines (600029)： The domestic route has been affected by the wrong period of the Spring Festival.
Posted On 03/25/2020
China Southern Airlines (600029): The domestic route has been affected by the wrong period of the Spring Festival.
Investment points The growth rate of transportation capacity is stable and the international line is higher than the domestic line. The monthly growth rate of ASK as a whole, domestic and international alternatives were 7, respectively.
From January to March 19, ASK was required to increase at a rate of 11 for the whole, domestic and international ten years.
From January to March of 19th, the growth rate of capacity deployment was rapid and overall stable. From the comparison of capacity growth rate, the international line was higher than the domestic line.
The misalignment of the Spring Festival caused the domestic line RPK to increase by 4 each year in March.
6% In March of 19, the RPK overall, domestic and international short-term growth rates were 6 respectively.
From January to March of 19th, the growth rate of RPK as a whole, domestic and international for many years was 11 respectively.
In a single month in March 19, domestic RPKs grew at a rate of 4 at a time.
6%, the first is that the Spring Festival is in the wrong period, which caused part of the Spring Festival in March 18th to include part of the Spring Festival transportation demand.
From January to March 19, the international passenger load factor increased by 1.
The average of 33 single months in March 19, the overall load factor, domestic and international were 83.
77%, with annual changes of -0.
From January to March 19, the passenger load factor was overall, domestic and international respectively 82.
90%, the annual change is 0.
The international passenger load factor has improved in the short term, indicating that international demand was good from January to March.
In a single month in March 19, the domestic line load factor growth rate decreased by 0.
96 averages, the first is that the Spring Festival period caused at least a drop in load factor. The budget is expected to be flexible in the peak season. Maintaining the “Buy” rating is expected 杭州桑拿网 to be in 19-21, and the company’s net profit attributable to the parent is 78.
2.5 billion, 98.
68 ppm and 123.
USD 3.9 billion, with annual growth rates of 162.
11% and 25.
04%, corresponding estimates are 13.
29 times, 10.
54 times and 8.
After the company withdrew from the alliance, Tianhe continued to strengthen its cooperation with the International Airlines Division, and the increase and promotion of Guangzhou international transit passengers increased the load factor.
The commissioning of Beijing Daxing Airport will become an important opportunity for the company to realize the Guangzhou-Beijing “dual hub” strategy, and the route structure will continue to be optimized.
Expecting flexible ticket prices in the peak season, “Buy” is recommended.
Risk reminder aviation safety 深圳SPA会所 risk; business cycle risk; oil price fluctuation risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; policy change risk.