Tonghua Dongbao (600867)： Second-generation growth is relatively weak, expecting the third-generation insulin to go public
Posted On 03/20/2020
Tonghua Dongbao (600867): Second-generation growth is relatively weak, expecting the third-generation insulin to go public
The first quarter of 2019 results are basically in line with expectations. Tonghua Dongbao announced the first quarter of 2019 results: operating income7.14 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.70%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company2.74 million, a decline of 0 every year.06%; corresponding profit is 0.13 yuan.Basically in line with our low value growth expectations. Development trend High base impact in 2018, executives change the pain period.Since the destocking of the company’s channels in the third quarter of 2018, the company has experienced two quarterly performance adjustments. The single quarter net profit in the third and fourth quarters of 2018 has decreased by 37% and 28%, respectively.Quarterly revenue and net profit returned to the same period in 2018.In the first half of 2018, the company’s bill receivables and receivables increased significantly51.61%, the short-term performance increase brought by channel value-added inventory will bring breakthrough pressure to the operation in the first half of 2019.At the same time, after March 2019, including the replacement of the executive team within the chairman, the new team will still need time to run in.We expect the company’s 2019Q2 company’s performance growth will remain relatively weak, and will gradually improve after 2019Q3. Cash flow has improved.After the channel destocked, the company strengthened the collection of receivables, and the cash flow in 2019Q1 improved significantly.Net operating cash flow of the company from January to March 3.90 ppm, an increase of 130 in ten years.96%.Product structure impact, gross profit margin increased by 1.89ppt.During the period, the rate increased slightly by 1.67ppt. Looking forward to the opportunity of the third-generation insulin market.According to insight data, the company’s third-generation insulin glargine completed clinical field inspections in December 2018, and after entering some information in January 2019, it entered a three-in-one on-site audit waiting on March 28.In the case of subsequent follow-up, after going through three annexes of pharmaceutical production and CDE report, it can be listed on the market.We expect the company’s third-generation insulin to be listed in the third quarter of 2019.By then, the company’s mature national sales network will be merged, and the performance of the third generation is expected to achieve a rapid 南京桑拿网 volume increase, which will boost the company’s performance. Earnings forecasts remain unchanged from 2019/2020 earnings forecasts of 0 respectively.49 yuan, 0.At 62 yuan, the current corresponding P / E is 32X / 25X. Estimates and recommendations Considering the long-term boosting effect of the third-generation insulin listing on the company, we still maintain the recommendation level.Maintain target price of 16.50 yuan, corresponding P / E is 34X / 26X, corresponding to the current expected 6.87% upside. Risks The third-generation insulin development progress exceeds expectations, and related policy risks.