Aerospace Information (600271)： Fundamental turning point is underestimated and turned into opportunity
Posted On 03/23/2020
Aerospace Information (600271): Fundamental turning point is underestimated and turned into opportunity
Announcement under revision to sustainable could be 21.79 yuan / share.On December 25, 2019, the company announced the “Announcement of Aerospace Information Co., Ltd. on the downward revision of the convertible corporate bond conversion price”.79 yuan / share. Two aspects can be speculated that the intention is to increase conversion.The company’s working capital (current assets deducted and exempted from current liabilities) in 2017-2018 was approximately 107 and 109 megabytes, respectively, with scale penetration.In 2015, the company issued convertible bonds of 24 million pounds to four aspects, not only the amount of working capital is much smaller, but also the coupon rate reached 1 in the 4th to 6th years.5% / 1.5% / 1.6%.According to this, it is suspected that the company’s leaders may actively promote the conversion of shares before repaying 杭州夜网论坛 debts. ” The fundamentals that have continued to improve in the recent past have created favorable conditions for conversion.Under the background of tax reduction, some investors in 2019H1 may think that innovative services such as service fees / membership fees / loan assistance may stagnate, and the actual fundamentals are much better than expected. One of the better clues to the fundamentals is that the user service / membership / loan assistance logic will continue smoothly in 2019.According to the 2019 Interim Report, the number of tax-controlled users increased by more than 1.6 million in 19H1 (the market believes that the number of users will not increase under the background of “reduction of taxes and fees”).More than 5,500 terminal self-service devices, and more than 400,000 new electronic invoice users, exceeding market expectations.Considering that the external environment of tariffs is “reduction of taxes and fees” in 2019, users and members of anti-counterfeiting tax control will take the fee first and then levy it. It is likely to be lower and higher in 2019.Therefore, the better-than-expected fundamentals of actual operation in 2019 are better. The second is that the “tax reduction” in 2019 is only a one-time impact, and the minimum base of 2019Q1 has passed.We believe that the impact of the tax reduction is only a one-time impact. It will begin to decline marginally in 2020. The company’s revenue and gross margin growth will exceed expectations in the first three quarters of 2019, and the number of members will continue to increase. It is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter of 2019.Expenses in Q1 2019 are high, and it is expected that some employees’ bonuses will be included to provide a basis for better profit growth in 2020H1. The third clue that the fundamentals are better is that Principal’s business has become an additional increase in revenue and profit.The 2019 Interim Report pointed out that the online information industry played a synergistic advantage. In the first half of 2019, 25 new pilot projects were awarded, and 63 pilot projects in this industry sector have been transformed. The bid winning rate ranks first in the industry. Maintain profit forecast and “Buy” rating.Taking into account the one-time risk of “tax reduction”, the NDRC may re-establish the equipment / service fee standards every year, exceeding the expected service / members / assistance loans, exceeding the expected Principal Business, and will not adjust the profit forecast for the time being.Net profit is expected to be 20 in 2019-2021.33, 26.82 and 29.82 trillion, is expected to be 308 in 2019-2021.01, 340.70 and 363.09 million yuan.Maintain “Buy” rating!